Posted 12th November 2009 at 23:18 by
With a 38-29 record on this NFL 2009 season, here is my first pick for the Week 10 Thursday Night Football game:
[b]Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers[/b]
Chicago Bears (4-4) on their last 4 games, only managed to win once and it was against the weak Cleveland Browns at home, on the other 3 games against good teams, they were completely dominated, specially against the Cincinatti Bengals and against the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, San Francisco 49ers (3-5) are win-less 4 games in a row, a streak that started with the Falcons massacre and continued losing until last week, with 3 games lost with a play difference, thus they managed to keep their games somewhat close.
Chicago Bears are at the moment playing badly, thanks to their secondary, which has been completely dominated by teams with a good passing game. They have important players missing in the team, mainly SS Al Afalava. If things are not pretty in the Bears defense thanks to secondary problems, it only gets worse because they can't stop the opponents' rushing game. And things can get more ugly for the Bears, because on the other side we have one of the best league rushers, RB Frank Gore, whom rarely fumbles the ball and has a 5.6 yards per carry average (YPC).
QB Jay Cutler has a good arm, but his bigger problem is when he faces a good defense that pressures to well the opponents' quarterback, which is the case of the 49ers defense. When that happens, Jay Cutler doesn't know what to do the ball and he throws completely at random and I think that on this game, he will have again big troubles to have enough time to make good calls and if that happens, Jay Cutler will suffer some passes intercepted plus a lot of incomplete passes.
Lately, Jay Cutler's main weapon has been TE Greg Olsen, who scored on the last game 3 touchdowns against Arizona, surely he won't do again do such a performance so soon, because the 49ers defend quite well and because their defensive unit will be more focused on this game than the Cards D, which had already the game won and didn't cared too much with Greg Olsen.
As Wide Receivers, Chicago counts with WR Earl Bennet, an average player, and WR Devin Hester who has 3 touchdowns scored and a 13.4 yards YPC, which means that Devin Hester is dangerous thanks to his top speed, but the Bears against aggressive defenses haven't been able to do much.
The Bears' rushing game results are sub par on the last weeks, we all know that RB Matt Forte (3.6 YPC) is a very good player, but is has not been lately on his best form, besides RB Garrett Wolfe is injured, so there is no quality backup to give Matt Forte some rest, which means that Chicago will have to play much more by the air, which makes their offense more predictable and that can be very dangerous when you play against a aggressive defense like the one displayed by the 49ers.
San Francisco is going again with QB Alex Smith as the starting quarterback and I agree with this decision, he is undoubtedly the best quarterback of the team and for this offense he is the most suited player to lead this team, having good options on the wide receivers and tight end positions. I think that the 49ers will launch at least 3 wide receivers for this game, WR Josh Morgan (13.8 YPC) who is improving week after week, WR Isaac Bruce (12.2 YPC) and the rookie WR Michael Crabtree (11,9 YPC), a very good player to match with the kind of quarterback like Alex Smith.
San Francisco also has on the best league's tight ends, TE Vernon Davis, who is the main target for the 49ers quarterback. Thanks to this new offense that San Francisco is trying to implement, the 49ers can complicate very much the life of the Bears' secondary and that might be the key for San Francisco to win this game. They also have a good rushing game, so if Chicago focus more on defending the 49ers' passing game, RB Frank Gore (5.6 YPC) will take care of business by the ground, which makes this offense very dangerous for the Bears' defense. Frank Gore has been great this season so far, he has already scored 5 touchdowns and has only 1 fumble.
San Francisco defense is very good against the rushing game, and RB Matt Forte will not have an easy task today. Against the passing game the 49ers D is not that bad either, but is not that effective when compared against the opponents' ground offense, but they have shown good qualities (aggressiveness and pressure) when they face a strong opposition's passing game, being the games against the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts two good examples, even if the Colts didn't played with a 100% commitment level, since they are close to clinch a playoffs berth.
In short, with San Francisco having a good defense and knowing that they will surely deliver a lot of pressure against Jay Cutler, we can expect some costly errors from the Bears' quarterback. The 49ers rushing game is one of the best lately and the Bears D has a lot of gaps against this kind of offense, so I expect a long night for Chicago on this field. The 49ers O in the passing game is improving and Alex Smith is the best match for his receivers and this is for me the biggest edge for San Francisco on this game, since the Bears' secondary has some important players missing due to injuries, which is translating in bad performances on their last games against good offensive teams.
This will be a short week for both teams, specially for Chicago who has to travel and with the important home field advantage for the 49ers, I believe that they will have enough commitment and enthusiasm to win this game at least by 1 touchdown.
[b]Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3 125 (1.80) Bookmaker[/b]
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